Robotaxi Market Overview
Size Estimates
- ARK: $4T market by 2030
- Fortune Business: ~$119B by 2030
- CAGR: 45.2% in some projections
Players
- Waymo: Early operational leader; 1M paid rides/month.
- Tesla: May achieve lower cost per mile at scale; betting on software margins.
Key Debates
- Valuation and timeline disagreement (ARK vs. traditional estimates)
- Technology stack differences: LiDAR (Waymo) vs. camera-only (Tesla)
Quotes
- “Could be ~90% of Tesla’s EV by 2029” — ARK